CAPital EXpenditures (CAPEX): Historical Trends, Current Estimates, and Future Projections

Technology cost and performance projections are taken from the AEO Reference Scenario (EIA 2017). Because little-to-no coal is built in the Reference Scenario, coal capital expenditures (CAPEX) decline according to the minimum learning rate. Pulverized coal is a relatively mature technology, and therefore has a low minimum learning rate. Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology, where the coal is gasified and then fed into a combined cycle turbine, is less mature and is assumed to have a slightly higher minimum learning rate. Coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is also a newer technology with a higher minimum learning rate.

Current estimates and future projections calculated from EIA (2017), modified as described in the CAPEX section.

R&D Only Financial Assumptions (constant background rates, no tax or tariff changes)

Comparison with Other Sources

Data sources include the ATB, B& V (2012), Lazard (2016), NETL (2015), and Rubin, Davison, and Herzog (2015).

Lazard (2016) does not explicitly define their ranges with and without CCS; thus, the high end of their pulverized coal and IGCC ranges and the low end of their IGCC-CCS range are assumed to be the middle of the full reported range. All sources have been normalized to the same dollar year. Costs vary due to differences in system design (e.g., coal rank), methodology, and plant cost definitions. The coal capital costs include environmental controls to meet current federal regulations.