Geothermal

ATB data for geothermal are shown above. These projections use bottom-up models derived from the analysis and results of the GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath our Feet report (DOE, 2019). The GeoVision report is a collaborative multiyear effort with contributors from industry, academia, national laboratories, and federal agencies. The analysis in the report updates resource potential estimates as well as current and projected capital and O&M costs through evaluation of current industry trends and predicted advancements in areas such as drilling efficiency and materials and enhanced geothermal system (EGS) stimulation success. Drilling and EGS improvements enable reduced development timelines, CAPEX, and financing rates.

The three scenarios for technology innovation are:

• Conservative Technology Innovation Scenario (Conservative Scenario): continuation of current industry trends in drilling (e.g., minor efficiency improvements with little to no increase in rate of penetration [ROP]) and EGS (e.g. limited increase in flow rate and stimulation success rate) resulting in minor CAPEX improvements by 2030
• Moderate Technology Innovation Scenario (Moderate Scenario): drilling advancements (e.g., doubled rate of penetration and bit life and reduced number of casing intervals and associated drilling materials) detailed as part of the GeoVision report result in cost improvements that are achieved by 2030
• Advanced Technology Innovation Scenario (Advanced Scenario): substantial drilling and EGS advancements (e.g., significantly increased rate of penetration, bit life, and EGS stimulation success, limited casing intervals, significantly reduced consumption of drilling materials, and reduced timelines) as modeled in the Technology Improvement scenario of the GeoVision report result in cost improvements that are achieved by 2030.