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Land-Based Wind

ATB data for land-based wind are shown above. These projections use bottom-up engineering models in combination with defined 2030 turbine and plant technologies. The future technology pathways are based on predicted technology advancements from continued and rapid scaling of modern wind turbine nameplate ratings and increased rotor sizes. These gains in turbine scaling and technology advancements enable economies of scale, balance-of-plant efficiencies, and more-efficient energy extraction for turbines in various resource regimes at greater heights above the ground.

In general, there is substantial focus throughout the global wind industry on driving down costs and increasing performance as a result of fierce competition from within as well as among several power generation technologies, including solar PV and natural gas-fired generation.

The three scenarios for technology innovation are:

  • Conservative Technology Innovation Scenario (Conservative Scenario): wind technology scale increasing in the near term but leveling off soon afterward, with limited advancement in turbine controls and science-based modeling to inform the next generation of wind technology
  • Moderate Technology Innovation Scenario (Moderate Scenario): scale continuing to increase rapidly with innovations overcoming transportation challenges, advancements occurring in turbine controls, and science-based modeling informing the next generation of wind technology
  • Advanced Technology Innovation Scenario (Advanced Scenario): enabling large-scale increases in turbine technology size and scope new transportation solutions, fully integrated wind plant advanced control systems, and high-fidelity science-based modeling to inform multiple aspects of turbine design.

Developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.